22 February 2019

Last July 2018, PAGASA issued an El Niño Watch to advise the public of the possibility of its onset. But on February 20, PAGASA upgraded this to El Niño Advisory, since the unusually warm sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean which started in November 2018 is expected to become a full-blown El Niño.

According to PAG-ASA, rainfall analyses during the past 3 months showed that all impacts of below normal rainfall conditions in provinces of Western Mindanao and Ilocos Norte were already experienced and are expected to continue. The El Niño is anticipated to be weak and will likely result to below normal rainfall conditions in different parts of the country in the coming months.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally-occurring phenomenon when the sea surface temperature is 0.5°C warmer than the normal temperature. It lasts 8-12 months and occurs every 2-7 years. The strongest episodes occur every 10-15 years.

What are the effects of El Niño on the Philippine climate?

1. Delayed onset of the rainy season
2. Extended dry season
3. Weak monsoon activity
4. Fewer tropical cyclones
5. Below normal rainfall
6. Above normal temperature

What are the effects El Niño to different sectors?

Agriculture

1. Decline in soil moisture availability
2. Decline in crop production due to the delayed onset of rainy season
3. Increase in pests and diseases

Water Resources

1. Reduced stream flows and groundwater due to less rainfall
2. Reduced water supply and quality which may affect dams, irrigation and power generation
3. Over-extraction of groundwater
4. Less rainfall will have a negative impact on forest resources

Marine Resources

1. Fish kills and red tide
2. Decline in fish production

Human Health

1. Less water for hygiene and sanitation
2. Higher cost of drinking water due to reduced supply
3. Increased incidence of pulmonary diseases due to poorer air quality caused by forest fires and haze
4. Increase in tropical diseases such as malaria, dengue and skin diseases due to drier conditions and/or warmer air temperature
5. Increase in food-borne diseases such as salmonellosis due to higher temperature

Environment

1. Land or soil degradation due to loss of vegetation
2. Increase in forest or peat land fires
3. Poor air quality due to the occurrence of smoke, haze and forest fires

What should we do?

1. The Disaster Preparedness Committees in the communities should formulate their preparedness, mitigation, response, and rehabilitation plan for El Niño.
2. Read monthly climate advisories issued by PAGASA and get updates from your local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Officials.
3. Check and immediately fix water leaks or report the problem to appropriate authorities.
4. Maximize rainwater harvesting and storage.
5. Implement water conservation measures.
6. Cooperate on local measures to help manage the impacts of El Niño.
7. Get crop insurance and check advisories from your local agriculture officials.
8. Set air conditioning units between 22°C to 25°C.

How can we conserve water?

1. Turn off faucet while brushing teeth. Better yet, use a glass.
2. Remove all leftover food before washing the dishes. Wash them using a small basin. Store and reuse the final rinse water to flush toilets.
3. Store and reuse laundry water to clean floors, flush toilets, etc.
4. Water plants early in the morning or late in the afternoon to minimize evaporation.
5. Do not hose down your vehicle. Clean using a wash cloth and pail.
6. Use water efficient gadgets such as high pressure low volume hoses and showerheads, faucets and aerators and double flush toilets.

Source: Payong PAGASA El Niño Guide